If the intellectual framework is incorrect will I be unsuccessful.

Not necessarily.

If your decision making spanned a large amount of time, the answer is most likely.

But in the microcosm of time that it is being made, namely a human life time, the answer is not necessary.

If the intellectual framework is correct will I avoid disaster.

Not necessarily.

To avoid disaster requires that you be prepared all the time and that you can see around the corner all the time.

Both of which are almost impossible even for those in the know and are prepared to do it.

The analogy would be of a house with strong foundations built in an earthquake zone hit by an earthquake that is off the Richter scale. Cracks will show probably and disaster might even follow.