Economic forecast and why they are seldom correct both in predicting a crash or recovery

There is a axiom about stock market crashes:

"The causes are always different but the results are always the same"

In fact if you think about it this makes complete sense. Because the causes are unknown and come out of the blues that they cause so much panic and fear, such as the credit crisis. No one knows what to expect. The mind conjures up dire consequences, some of which do happen. Recovery happens in the stock market when the fear of the unknown abates either because the market becomes numb to the consequences or that they feel the consequences won't be as bad as they think. This would explain why the market almost always recovers before the economy does.

This would also explain Sir John Templeton's observation:

"Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria"